正如上周下半年预示的那样,澳洲储备银行已经放弃了其收益曲线目标,停止了将澳大利亚政府债券收益率保持在0.1%的目标。betway平台货币政策的另一个方面是公司的,皇家国意集注将现金利率保持在0.1%,并继续以每周40亿美元的价格购买政府证券,直到至少2022年2月中旬。betway平台

根据RBA的说法,取消收益率目标反映了改善的经济状况以及高于预期的通货膨胀结果 - 涉及到2021年9月在一年中记录的2.1%的核心通货膨胀阅读。RBA董事会重申了他们的立场,以为他们的立场,以为the cash rate won’t move higher until inflation is sustainably within their 2-3% target range, implying a requirement for tighter labour markets and a ‘material’ boost in wages growth before the inflation requirement is met.

Private sector economists are increasingly predicting the timing for a rate hike could be brought forward, potentially as early as the second half of next year, although the RBA has reiterated they will be ‘patient’ in their decision making around higher rates, noting the RBA now expects core inflation to reach the midpoint of their target range by the end of 2023. A further rise in core inflation could see the RBA adjusting their expectations for the inflation objective to be met even earlier.

利率的早期提升为住房价值带来了额外的下行风险。我们已经看到了房价欣赏由于可负担性压力,库存水平上升以及截至11月1日,信贷条件更严格。一旦利率开始提高,就有很大的机会,房价很快就会朝相反的方向前进。

尽管考虑到住房市场条件的考虑不在RBA的任务范围内,但住房趋势确实会影响稳定风险,例如贷款质量和家庭债务。可以说,最近降低住房价值增长和较少住房信用增长的趋势将有助于降低进一步的风险宏观审慎措施